A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will win here and the other side will in the end lose but each side has possesses important lessons to acquire from the opposing positions."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
